Monthly Investment Updates

For markets, economies, and geopolitics, 2022 has felt like all bad news.

April was an abysmal month for most risk assets, with the S&P 500 index (large US companies) declining nearly 9 percent bringing year-to-date losses for the index to almost 13 percent.

Equity markets are once again in correction territory (defined a decline of 10% or more) with some parts of the market, such as technology stocks, officially in a bear market (a decline of 20% or more).

Since our last monthly update, it’s fair to state that the Russia / Ukraine war and resulting energy and commodity price increases have clouded the outlook for US and global economic growth.

Any attempts for an investment management firm to accurately describe the horror and tragedy that is occurring in Ukraine would undoubtedly fall short.

The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated quickly the past few days.

January was an ugly start to the year for the capital markets with the S&P 500 index declining more than 11% at its worst point before recovering to a loss of 5% for the month.

Rising costs have been a reality for much of 2021, though we anticipate the pace of increases to moderate in 2022 as energy prices and supply chain disruptions stabilize. Household and business spending are also expected to exhibit more historically normal patterns this year as fiscal and monetary stimulus are reduced (an acknowledgement that the economic recovery is well on-track).

For many investors, 2021 was a year of robust gains with the S&P 500 index returning nearly 29%, but there was significant dispersion in results across industries and geographies. Areas like emerging markets declined 3% as a category as geopolitical risk in China and pandemic-related challenges continued to weigh on these markets.

As we approach the beginning of a new year, it is only natural to reflect upon the year that was to remind ourselves how we arrived at this moment.